LOOK BEYOND WIN RATE
Trade Expectancy Calculator
Combine your win rate, average winning trade, average losing trade, and costs to estimate the average P/L per trade.
Your result
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How to use this calculator
Adjust the inputs to your own scenario, then review the result alongside the assumptions below. The $ symbol is a currency label; the tool does not convert exchange rates.
Worked example
A 40% win rate, $300 average win, $100 average loss, and $10 cost per trade give $50 expectancy per trade. Across 100 trades, the arithmetic expected total is $5,000; the actual outcome can differ substantially.
The formula
Expectancy = win probability × average win − loss probability × average loss − cost per trade. Break-even win rate = (average loss + cost) ÷ (average win + average loss).
What the result means
A high win rate can still lose money when losses outweigh wins. Positive estimated expectancy does not guarantee a profit, and a small or selected sample may give misleading averages.
Assumptions and limitations
Uses two outcomes (win or loss), fixed average values, and equal costs on all trades. Excludes breakeven trades as a separate outcome and does not model compounding or trade order. Enter gross wins/losses and add costs once; use zero costs if your averages are already net.
Common questions
What does expectancy in R mean?
Here it is net dollar expectancy divided by the average gross losing trade. It is not necessarily the initial risk of each trade.
What if the break-even rate exceeds 100%?
The cost is too large relative to the average win for this model to break even, even if every trade wins.
Put your trading rules to the test
Explore supported daily stock rules, then review historical trades, drawdowns, and the report’s assumptions.
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Open calculator →Educational calculations, not a forecast or personalized investment advice. Your inputs are used locally for the calculation and are not submitted by this tool.