IRM Short volume crosses above volume Backtest

HISTORICAL BACKTEST · IRM DAILY

What this backtest found

1999-04-26 to 2026-10-01 · $10,000.00 USD starting capital · costs as specified below

The strategy returned 0% over the full test period, compared with 555.29% for buy and hold. It underperformed that benchmark on total return. Its largest decline from a previous equity high was 0%.

CAGR is the equivalent compounded yearly return across these dates, not the return earned in every year. Drawdown measures the largest fall from a previous daily equity high. Ending equity includes any open position marked to the final close.

How this strategy works

IRM is tested on daily bars with one short position at a time. Entry conditions are combined using AND: every condition must match. A close signal executes at the next session’s open.

• Entry: volume crosses above volume.
• Entry: close crosses below EMA(25).

EMA: an exponential moving average gives more weight to recent closes. The engine seeds each period with a simple average, then applies exponential smoothing. A close/EMA crossover compares yesterday’s relationship with today’s; an EMA/EMA rule compares the two requested averages.

Volume: the engine compares the supplied daily volume with the number or average specified in the rules. Average volume includes the current completed session. A volume condition filters signals; it does not model liquidity, spread, or order-fill capacity.

6% profit target: measured from the raw entry open, before execution slippage and fees. Opening gaps fill at open; otherwise daily high/low touches determine fills. A stop takes priority when both stop and target touch in one daily bar.

2% fixed stop: measured from the raw entry open, before execution slippage and fees. Opening gaps fill at open; otherwise daily high/low touches determine fills. A stop takes priority when both stop and target touch in one daily bar.

Strategy versus buy and hold

Both curves start with $10,000.00 USD and use the same historical dates. Buy and hold returned 555.29% (7.09% annualized), with 55.62% maximum drawdown.

● Strategy ● Buy and hold

Drawdowns over time

● Strategy ● Buy and hold

Annual performance

Annual returns use the previous year’s final equity, or initial capital for the first year. Ongoing drawdown retains the previous all-time peak, including peaks in earlier years.

What these results mean

The strategy’s 0% annualized return was 7.09 percentage points below the long buy-and-hold benchmark’s 7.09%. Its worst daily peak-to-trough decline was smaller by 55.62 percentage points. That is a return/drawdown trade-off, not proof of better risk-adjusted performance. It held a position during 0% of sessions; cash earned no interest in this simulation.

The weakest displayed calendar period was 1999 at 0%. First and last years may be partial. A full-period average can hide substantial variation.

Fewer than 20 closed trades make these statistics especially sensitive to individual outcomes.

Fees and slippage are 0% and 0% per side. This is a zero-cost simulation; adding execution costs can reduce results. This report contains no out-of-sample validation or parameter robustness study, so it does not establish that these rules generalize.

Price, trades and active exit levels

● Daily close ● EMA(25)

Volume and average volume

● volume

Price circles show executed entries and exits; select a circle to open its trade. Triangles mark individual crossover conditions, not executed orders: other conditions and the existing position can prevent execution. Dashed exit levels apply only while a position is held. All charts share the same date range. Zoom in/out, select a year, or pan on any chart to update them together.

Trade history

Exact rules and methodology

Read the strategy-specific explanation above.

• Signals use completed daily bars; entries and indicator/holding exits execute at the next session open. Indicators warm up using earlier history; no pre-range entry signal is carried in.
• Opening stop/target gaps execute at open. Otherwise a scheduled indicator/holding exit executes at open; within a bar, stop takes priority if both stop and target touch.
• Initial capital $10,000.00 USD; one fully allocated fractional position, no pyramiding or leverage. Fees and adverse slippage apply to entry and exit. Buy-and-hold benchmark is always long.
• Shorts reserve capital at 1x exposure; borrow availability, borrow fees, margin calls and dividend obligations are not modeled. Simulation stops at zero capital; real short losses can exceed capital.
• Open positions are marked at the last close without an assumed final sale fee. Cash interest and dividends are excluded.

Results are calculated on the supplied daily prices. Dividends and cash interest are excluded.

Calculated: 2026-10-18 18:10:34 UTC. Engine: 3.1. Data: IRM, 1999-04-26–2026-10-01.

Related backtests

These are separate saved tests. Compare dates and costs before comparing results.

Understand the metrics

Educational historical simulation, not investment advice.