NVDA 10-Day EMA Crossover Backtest

HISTORICAL BACKTEST · NVDA DAILY

What this backtest found

2016-09-28 to 2026-09-25 · $10,000.00 USD starting capital · costs as specified below

The strategy returned 448.3% over the full test period, compared with 13405.4% for buy and hold. It underperformed that benchmark on total return. Its largest decline from a previous equity high was 53.39%.

CAGR is the equivalent compounded yearly return across these dates, not the return earned in every year. Drawdown measures the largest fall from a previous daily equity high. Ending equity includes any open position marked to the final close.

How this strategy works

NVDA is tested on daily bars with one long position at a time. Entry conditions are combined using AND: every condition must match. A close signal executes at the next session’s open.

• Entry: close crosses above EMA(10).

EMA: an exponential moving average gives more weight to recent closes. The engine seeds each period with a simple average, then applies exponential smoothing. A close/EMA crossover compares yesterday’s relationship with today’s; an EMA/EMA rule compares the two requested averages.

12% profit target: measured from the raw entry open, before execution slippage and fees. Opening gaps fill at open; otherwise daily high/low touches determine fills. A stop takes priority when both stop and target touch in one daily bar.

6% fixed stop: measured from the raw entry open, before execution slippage and fees. Opening gaps fill at open; otherwise daily high/low touches determine fills. A stop takes priority when both stop and target touch in one daily bar.

Strategy versus buy and hold

Both curves start with $10,000.00 USD and use the same historical dates. Buy and hold returned 13405.4% (63.4% annualized), with 66.36% maximum drawdown.

● Strategy ● Buy and hold

Drawdowns over time

● Strategy ● Buy and hold

Annual performance

Annual returns use the previous year’s final equity, or initial capital for the first year. Ongoing drawdown retains the previous all-time peak, including peaks in earlier years.

Execution risk observed in this test

A 6% stop did not cap every loss: the trade exiting on 2025-01-27 lost 10.37% after opening beyond the stop. Daily gaps can bypass the intended exit level.

What these results mean

The strategy’s 18.57% annualized return was 44.83 percentage points below the long buy-and-hold benchmark’s 63.4%. Its worst daily peak-to-trough decline was smaller by 12.97 percentage points. That is a return/drawdown trade-off, not proof of better risk-adjusted performance. It held a position during 51.79% of sessions; cash earned no interest in this simulation.

Across 113 closed trades, 43.4% were profitable. The average winner was 12.5% and the average loser was -6.19%. Profit factor was 1.25: $1.25 of positive closed-trade P&L for each $1 of losses. The longest losing run was 6 trades. Win rate alone does not capture the size of wins and losses.

The weakest displayed calendar period was 2022 at -23.98%. First and last years may be partial. A full-period average can hide substantial variation.

The longest observed drawdown lasted 906 calendar days, with 623 underwater sessions, from 2021-11-29 to 2024-05-23. Equity regained the earlier peak on the ending date.

Best closed trade: 20.24% · 2016-10-19 to 2016-11-11, exiting because of gap above target.

Worst closed trade: -10.37% · 2025-01-21 to 2025-01-27, exiting because of gap below stop.

Fees and slippage are 0% and 0% per side. This is a zero-cost simulation; adding execution costs can reduce results. This report contains no out-of-sample validation or parameter robustness study, so it does not establish that these rules generalize.

Price, trades and active exit levels

● Daily close ● EMA(10) ● Profit target (12%) ● Fixed stop (6%)

Price circles show executed entries and exits; select a circle to open its trade. Triangles mark individual crossover conditions, not executed orders: other conditions and the existing position can prevent execution. Dashed exit levels apply only while a position is held. All charts share the same date range. Zoom in/out, select a year, or pan on any chart to update them together.

Trade history

Exact rules and methodology

Read the strategy-specific explanation above.

• Signals use completed daily bars; entries and indicator/holding exits execute at the next session open. Indicators warm up using earlier history; no pre-range entry signal is carried in.
• Opening stop/target gaps execute at open. Otherwise a scheduled indicator/holding exit executes at open; within a bar, stop takes priority if both stop and target touch.
• Initial capital $10,000.00 USD; one fully allocated fractional position, no pyramiding or leverage. Fees and adverse slippage apply to entry and exit. Buy-and-hold benchmark is always long.
• Open positions are marked at the last close without an assumed final sale fee. Cash interest and dividends are excluded.

Results are calculated on the supplied daily prices. Dividends and cash interest are excluded.

Calculated: 2026-10-01 17:25:10 UTC. Engine: 3.1. Data: NVDA, 2016-09-28–2026-09-25.

Related backtests

These are separate saved tests. Compare dates and costs before comparing results.

Understand the metrics

Educational historical simulation, not investment advice.